Projected Deaths due to Climate Change During European Summer Reach Approximately 16,500, According to Research
In a swiftly produced study, a team of researchers at the UK's University of Reading have estimated that climate change could have tripled the number of heat-related deaths this summer in various European cities. The study, not yet peer-reviewed, found that global warming made temperatures an average of 2.2 degrees Celsius hotter in 854 European cities between June and August. Consequently, the researchers estimate that rising temperatures from human-caused climate change were responsible for approximately 16,500 deaths in European cities this summer. Rome had the most estimated deaths attributed to climate change with 835, followed by Athens with 630 and Paris with 409. Using historical data, the team estimated there were around 24,400 excess deaths in those cities during that time, with over 85 percent being people aged 65 or over. The study suggests that nearly 70% of the estimated excess deaths were due to global warming. Akshay Deoras, an atmospheric science researcher at the University of Reading, stated that the methods used in these attribution studies are scientifically robust and conservative, implying that the actual death toll could be higher. The researchers used modeling methods similar to those used in previously peer-reviewed studies to make their estimates. However, the study did not represent Europe as a whole, as some areas, such as the Balkans, were not included. The estimates made by the study reflect previous peer-reviewed research, such as a Nature Medicine study that found more than 47,000 heat-related deaths during the European summer of 2023. Death tolls during heatwaves are thought to be underestimated due to causes of death recorded in hospitals being primarily heart, breathing, or other health problems affecting the elderly during high temperatures. Garyfallos Konstantinoudis, a study co-author, emphasized that an increase in heatwave temperature of just 2-4C can be the difference between life and death for thousands of people. The researchers were not able to compare their estimates to actual excess deaths recorded in European cities this summer because most countries take a long time to publish that data. Despite the study's rapid production and lack of peer-review, the findings have sparked concern about the impact of climate change on public health.
