Climate researchers foresee wildfire smoke posing as the priciest health-related threat from global warming
A new study published in the journal Nature has painted a concerning picture of the future impact of wildfire smoke on public health in the United States. The research, led by Francesca Dominici, suggests that wildfire smoke causes more than 41,400 excess deaths per year in the U.S., a figure more than twice what was previously recognized in other studies.
The study offers a stark vision of an increasingly smoke-choked nation, with wildfire smoke beginning to undo decades of work to clean up industrial U.S. air pollution. By midcentury, the number of deaths caused by wildfire smoke is expected to grow by an additional 26,500 to 30,000 due to human-caused climate change.
The research project focused on health impacts from wildfire smoke in the USA and assumed that people would take the same steps to avoid smoke exposure as they do today. However, it does not differentiate between the source of future wildfire smoke. The new study suggests that wildfire smoke may be more toxic than previously assumed, particularly when a wildfire burns through buildings, cars, and other human-produced materials.
The study in Nature estimates the number of excess deaths from wildfire smoke each year by comparing three models: one that estimates the influence of climate change on overall fire activity, another that models expected changes in fire activity and where smoke will travel, and a third that quantifies health outcomes that result from long-term smoke exposure.
The new research could have implications for public policy, as it comes at a time when the Environmental Protection Agency is trying to rescind a key legal provision known as the "endangerment finding" as part of a broad rollback on environmental regulations. The 2009 legal decision states that greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane are warming the Earth and that warming presents a threat to public health and welfare. The endangerment finding serves as the lynchpin for the agency's regulations about greenhouse gas pollution under the Clean Air Act.
Interestingly, the study's findings were published alongside a second study in Nature that used similar methods and took a worldwide view of the issue. The separate research group estimated that premature deaths from wildfire smoke might rise to about 1.4 million annually by the end of this century, which is about six times higher than today.
The Los Angeles fires earlier this year started as a brush fire, but mostly people's homes and human plastics burned, emitting a different toxic soup, according to Kaufman. The health problems associated with wildfire smoke include asthma, lung cancer, chronic lung problems, preterm birth, and miscarriage.
As the fight against climate change and air pollution continues, understanding and addressing the health risks posed by wildfire smoke will be crucial for protecting public health in the U.S. and beyond.
